Retail Gap Analysis
Cafn8 on Main est. 2022
In 2023, the Town of Bonnyville conducted a Retail Gap Analysis. This research indicated that the Town could immediately support an additional ~200,000 sq ft in retail space, with an extra 50% possible within the next 10 years.
Main areas of growth
Consistent growth over 5 years expected in the Primary Trade Area
north of expected growth
Detailed information of retail spending within each Trade Area was collected from Manifold Data Mining Inc., a leading supplier of demographic and consumer expenditure information, using 2021 year end data.
The data was further consolidated into 22 specific spending categories to build a spending profile for the Trade Areas.
Cafn8 on Main
Est. 2022
Recipient of the Beautification Loan
top 5 retail categories
The summary of the current inventory indicates a total ground floor commercial space of 747, 925 square feet. This space encompasses community services, professional and financial services, and medical and wellness services.
Excluding these non-retail categories and automotive uses, the retail-only inventory amounts to 604,462 square feet.
A review of the current vacancy and nature of the vacancies provides additional cues for prospective business interests in the community.
The current overall vacancy is estimated at 2.2%. This vacancy is very positive and suggests a healthy retail market with the opportunity to support new demand for retail space.
As an industrial-accepted comparable, 4-5% is considered a healthy retail environment.
retail demand forecast
The retail demand forecasts suggest a good opportunity for future retail and there are tenants capable of moving the needle for sales retention and attraction in Bonnyville.
Most notably, these include Walmart, Canadian Tire, Giant Tiger, Dollar Tree, Value Village, JYSK and Bulk Barn, to name a few.
In an online survey respondents, as well as FBM’s network of retailers and broker contacts, shed some light as to the future compatible businesses for Bonnyville, though there is no guarantee that they will be located with any sense of urgency. To be successful in attracting these store types or brands it will be necessary to increase the market share of trade area retail spending, and especially the Primary Trade Area.
Rapidly Growing Population
The population of the Town of Bonnyville has increased by 5% since 2021. Additional growth is expected by the Town’s participation in the Government of Alberta’s Rural Renewal Stream program.
The Town supports a rural population in the surrounding municipal district. The primary trade area is ~27,000 people with an average household income of $144,000.
In addition, a large shadow population also exists within the Town. With over 750 hotel rooms within the Town’s boundaries – a two-thirds capacity provides a population boost of almost 10% on a daily basis.
Town of Bonnyville Population Growth
Population Growth 5% since 2021
Source: Government of Alberta, Regional Dashboard, 2024
Future Growth Prospects:
A large number of multi-billion-dollar projects have started, or have been proposed, for the local area. These act as pillars for future economic growth for the region. They include:
- CFB Cold Lake Expansion.
- Pathways Alliance Carbon Capture Project.
- Small Modular Reactors.
- New Pipelines for Oil Export.
Retail Gap Analysis
Cafn8 on Main est. 2022
Retail Gap Analysis
In March, 2024, the Town of Bonnyville completed a commercial gap analysis showing the Town can accommodate an additional 195,000 sq ft of retail space immediately, with an additional 50% possible in the next 10 years.
Main areas of growth
Consistent growth over 5 years expected in the Primary Trade Area
north of expected growth
Detailed information of retail spending within each Trade Area was collected from Manifold Data Mining Inc., a leading supplier of demographic and consumer expenditure information, using 2021 year end data.
The data was further consolidated into 22 specific spending categories to build a spending profile for the Trade Areas.
Cafn8 on Main est. 2022
Recipient of the Town Beautification Loan
top 5 retail categories
The summary of the current inventory indicates a total ground floor commercial space of 1,286,629 square feet. This space encompasses community services, professional and financial services, and medical and wellness services.
Excluding these non-retail categories and automotive uses, the retail-only inventory amounts to 604,462 square feet.
A review of the current vacancy and nature of the vacancies provides additional cues for prospective business interests in the community.
The current overall vacancy is estimated at 2.2%. This vacancy is very positive and suggests a healthy retail market with the opportunity to support new demand for retail space.
As an industrial-accepted comparable, 4-5% is considered a healthy retail environment.
survey results favour bonnyville
In a recent survey, respondents identified that they prefer to do their day-to-day shopping in town.
The same survey indicated that most respondents kept their major purchases local as well.
retail demand forecast
The retail demand forecasts suggest a good opportunity for future retail and there are tenants capable of moving the needle for sales retention and attraction in Bonnyville.
Most notably, these include Walmart, Canadian Tire, Giant Tiger, Dollar Tree, Value Village, JYSK and Bulk Barn, to name a few.
In an online survey respondents, as well as FBM’s network of retailers and broker contacts, shed some light as to the future compatible businesses for Bonnyville, though there is no guarantee that they will be located with any sense of urgency. To be successful in attracting these store types or brands it will be necessary to increase the market share of trade area retail spending, and especially the Primary Trade Area.
Rapidly Growing Population
The population of the Town of Bonnyville has increased by 5% since 2021. Additional growth is expected by the Town’s participation in the Government of Alberta’s Rural Renewal Stream program.
The Town supports a rural population in the surrounding municipal district. The primary trade area is ~27,000 people with an average household income of $144,000.
In addition, a large shadow population also exists within the Town. With over 750 hotel rooms within the Town’s boundaries – a two-thirds capacity provides a population boost of almost 10% on a daily basis.
Town of Bonnyville Population Growth
Future Growth Prospects:
A large number of multi-billion-dollar projects have started, or have been proposed, for the local area. These act as pillars for future economic growth for the region. They include:
- CFB Cold Lake Expansion.
- Pathways Alliance Carbon Capture Project.
- Small Modular Reactors.
- New Pipelines for Oil Export.
Retail Gap Analysis
Cafn8 on Main est. 2022
Retail Gap Analysis
In March, 2024, the Town of Bonnyville completed a commercial gap analysis showing the Town can accommodate an additional 195,000 sq ft of retail space immediately, with an additional 50% possible in the next 10 years.
Main areas of growth
Consistent growth over 5 years expected in the Primary Trade Area
north of expected growth
Detailed information of retail spending within each Trade Area was collected from Manifold Data Mining Inc., a leading supplier of demographic and consumer expenditure information, using 2021 year end data.
The data was further consolidated into 22 specific spending categories to build a spending profile for the Trade Areas.
Cafn8 on Main est. 2022
Recipient of the Town Beautification Loan
top 5 retail categories
The summary of the current inventory indicates a total ground floor commercial space of 1,286,629 square feet. This space encompasses community services, professional and financial services, and medical and wellness services.
Excluding these non-retail categories and automotive uses, the retail-only inventory amounts to 604,462 square feet.
A review of the current vacancy and nature of the vacancies provides additional cues for prospective business interests in the community.
The current overall vacancy is estimated at 2.2%. This vacancy is very positive and suggests a healthy retail market with the opportunity to support new demand for retail space.
As an industrial-accepted comparable, 4-5% is considered a healthy retail environment.
survey results favour bonnyville
In a recent survey, respondents identified that they prefer to do their day-to-day shopping in town.
The same survey indicated that most respondents kept their major purchases local as well.
retail demand forecast
The retail demand forecasts suggest a good opportunity for future retail and there are tenants capable of moving the needle for sales retention and attraction in Bonnyville.
Most notably, these include Walmart, Canadian Tire, Giant Tiger, Dollar Tree, Value Village, JYSK and Bulk Barn, to name a few.
In an online survey respondents, as well as FBM’s network of retailers and broker contacts, shed some light as to the future compatible businesses for Bonnyville, though there is no guarantee that they will be located with any sense of urgency. To be successful in attracting these store types or brands it will be necessary to increase the market share of trade area retail spending, and especially the Primary Trade Area.
Rapidly Growing Population
The population of the Town of Bonnyville has increased by 5% since 2021. Additional growth is expected by the Town’s participation in the Government of Alberta’s Rural Renewal Stream program.
The Town supports a rural population in the surrounding municipal district. The primary trade area is ~27,000 people with an average household income of $144,000.
In addition, a large shadow population also exists within the Town. With over 750 hotel rooms within the Town’s boundaries – a two-thirds capacity provides a population boost of almost 10% on a daily basis.
Town of Bonnyville Population Growth
Future Growth Prospects:
A large number of multi-billion-dollar projects have started, or have been proposed, for the local area. These act as pillars for future economic growth for the region. They include:
- CFB Cold Lake Expansion.
- Pathways Alliance Carbon Capture Project.
- Small Modular Reactors.
- New Pipelines for Oil Export.
